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2012年1月23日星期一

Indian casinos struggle to get out from under debt

HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) — The warning from the ratings agency could not have been more direct: The parent company of the Mohegan Sun faces a “wall of debt” due early this year as the casino, struggling with rising competition and a weak economy that’s hammered consumer spending, tries to refinance hundreds of millions of dollars in loans.
The Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority has $505 million in loans outstanding and another $250 million due April 1, Keith Foley, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, recently told investors. The gaming authority, parent company of casinos in Uncasville, Conn., and Wilkes-Barre, Pa., also has about $21 million in interest payments due Feb. 15, he said.
Mohegan Sun announced this month that fourth-quarter net income rose significantly, to $46.7 million, compared with a net loss of $26.3 million in the same period in 2010. But it also said it failed to reach an agreement to refinance debt, though lenders waived a possible default.
“They get to live another day,” Foley said in an interview.
Executives at Mohegan Sun did not respond to a request for an interview.
Mohegan Sun is not alone as several Indian-run casinos — some with plans for expansion that have been put on hold — struggle to refinance debt after being caught short when the economy went into recession in December 2007.
Foxwoods Resort Casino in eastern Connecticut seeks to restructure debt, and the Mescalero Apache tribe restructured $200 million in bonds last year for casino resort property in New Mexico. A spokeswoman said Foxwoods is in debt talks, but would not provide details.
An advantage that Indian-run casinos have over their commercial counterparts is that they cannot file for bankruptcy and creditors can’t foreclose on their properties because tribal governments are sovereign, said Clyde Barrow, director of the Center for Policy Analysis at the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth.
Valerie Red-Horse, an investment banker and financial adviser who worked on the Mecalero Apache deal, called it the “best model out there,” in part because it preserved the casino’s financial distributions to tribal members and tribal government while bond holders kept their stakes, she said.
Some tribes have been forced to agree to cut their distributions until debt is paid down, Red-Horse said. Making sure distributions continue is a “very delicate subject. It causes a lot of angst among tribes,” she said.
Financial problems at the casino, the Inn of the Mountain Gods, were due in part to the slowing economy and faltering tourism, she said.
Indian-run casinos expanded rapidly because they are strong economic development tools for the tribes that run the casinos, said Peter Kulick, a Lansing, Mich., tax and gaming lawyer. The businesses survived economic downturns in the 1970s and 1980s and were seen as immune to recessions, he said.
“In the last go-round, that’s not the case,” he said.
Kulick and Barrow said competition is the newest threat to casinos, even as revenue is now rising as the economy slowly improves.
“There are some real pockets of recovery going on right now,” Barrow said.
Massachusetts legalized casino gambling in November, but it will be years before the three casinos authorized will be operating.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced this month that he would work with the Genting Group, one of the world’s largest gambling companies, to transform the Aqueduct horse track into a megaplex that would eventually include the nation’s largest convention center, 3,000 hotel rooms and a major expansion of a casino that began operating in October.
For Connecticut’s two casinos, “Aqueduct could be pretty substantial competitive pressure,” Barrow said.
“I don’t see real revenue growth for Connecticut’s casinos, he said.
Declining or stagnant revenue is bad news for Connecticut state government, which takes 25 percent of what the casinos pull in. State revenue from the two casinos reached their peak in 2007 at more than $411 million, said Kevin Lembo, Connecticut’s comptroller who tracks state revenue from all sources.
That’s declined to $342 million in the state’s budget year that ended last June 30, down $69 million, or 17 percent.
“The loss of revenue is one obvious and immediate impact for the state,” Lembo said. “What happens to jobs? What happens to future development plans? These are areas of concern for everyone at this point.”
Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman said the health of the two casinos is critical because they are destinations in southeast Connecticut, drawing tourists who also visit vineyards along the shoreline, the Mystic Aquarium and other sites.
“This is a big thing for us,” she said.
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China Financing Slowdown Reduces Systemic Risk, Moody’s Says

January 23, 2012, 6:19 AM EST
By Bloomberg News
(Adds comments from report starting in third paragraph.)
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) — China’s slowing non-bank financing growth will help the economy achieve a “soft landing” and reduces concerns about systemic risk, Moody’s Investors Service said in its Weekly Credit Outlook.
Preliminary data released last week from China’s central bank on financing in 2011 suggests an estimated drop in non-bank funding growth to 25 percent from 45 percent the previous year, Moody’s said. That is a credit positive for banks, the ratings company said.
“China’s ability to slow non-bank financing growth to its current pace is helpful to the prospects of a ‘soft landing’ in the economy and a development that diminishes our concerns about systemic risk,” Yvonne Zhang, a Beijing-based vice president and senior analyst for Moody’s, wrote in the report.
Chinese investors and borrowers have increasingly turned to non-bank products such as trusts, with investors seeking higher returns than bank deposits offer and borrowers looking for financing as China’s government slowed down new lending growth beginning in 2010. Ratings companies, including Moody’s and Fitch Ratings Ltd., said the rise in non-bank lending created added risks to the financial system in part because trusts often invest in assets tied to the real estate market or buy loans that banks want to move off of their balance sheets.
“Although these products are not on banks’ balance sheets, banks play an important role in making the transactions happen,” Zhang wrote.
Slowing Growth
Growth in China is slowing as the government seeks to curb inflation and rising home prices and refocus the engine of economic growth away from investment toward consumption. Gross domestic product expanded by 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 from a year earlier, the slowest pace in more than two years. Foreign direct investment fell for the second straight month in December, with November’s decline the first since 2009.
Moody’s Zhang said at a Beijing conference in November that off-balance sheet risks at Chinese banks were rising fast and that the country’s lenders needed better management of credit and liquidity.
China’s aggregate financing, which includes bank lending, off balance-sheet loans and bond and stock sales, fell 1.11 trillion yuan ($175.1 billion) to 12.83 trillion yuan in 2011 from the previous year, the People’s Bank of China said in a Jan. 18 statement.
–Editors: John Brinsley, Patrick Harrington
To contact the reporters on this story: Benjamin Purvis in Sydney at bpurvis@bloomberg.net; Michael Forsythe in Beijing at mforsythe@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net
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2012年1月17日星期二

Thai-ASEAN News Network – Financial Market Unaffected by Ratings Cut in EU and News on Terrorist Attacks

The central bank governor is confident that the credit rating downgrades of nine European nations and the news of possible terrorist attacks in Thailand will not have a significant impact on the country’s financial market.
Bank of Thailand, or BOT, Governor Prasarn Trairatworakul said that the credit rating downgrades of nine European nations by the leading credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s was in line with the global financial market’s expectation.

Prasarn further said that the ratings downgrade will have not much impact on Thailand’s financial markets since Thai financial institutions have invested a small amount of money in the bonds of the nine European countries.
As for the news of possible terrorist attacks in Bangkok, he said the situation would likely ease up soon and that investor confidence has not been affected.
Prasarn admitted that the rising energy cost resulting from the government’s planned energy structure adjustment will lead to an increase in food prices and that will push the inflation rate upward.
He noted that it is normal for people to come out and oppose against the energy price hike as they have used cheap energy, which is among the cost-saving measures, for a long time.
The central bank governor also gave an update on the BOT’s plan to repay the Financial Institutions Development Fund’s debt, saying the central bank plans to request state-run banks to contribute to the Deposit Protection Fund like private commercial banks do.
However, Prasarn stated that Finance Minister Thirachai Bhuvanartnaranubala disagreed with the plan, fearing its impact on the competition of financial institutions.
The BOT governor added that the finance minister has planned to control the scope of doing business and the expansion of state banks’ assets such as the issuance of loans to prevent inequality in financial institutions.
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2012年1月6日星期五

Fitch downgrades Hungary to junk status

BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Fitch downgraded Hungary’s credit rating to junk status on Friday, citing a standoff between the government and international lenders like the IMF and the European Union over possible rescue loans.
Fitch kept a negative outlook on Hungary, indicating a more than a 50 percent chance for another downgrade on the Central European nation of 10 million people within the next two years. The move followed similar action from Moody’s and Standards & Poor’s.
Hungary’s shaky finances have been battered this entire week. Its currency, the forint, fell to all-time lows during two consecutive days and the government suffered through a rough bond auction Thursday in which the interest rates it had to paid to borrow jumped more than 2 percentage points in just a few weeks.
Investors are deeply unsure about the government’s economic policies and whether it can agree upon a rescue loan with the International Monetary Fund.
Fitch Ratings’ decision to cut Hungary’s credit rating one notch, to BB+ from BBB-, was triggered partly “by further unorthodox economic policies which are undermining investor confidence and complicating the agreement of a new IMF-EU deal,” said Matteo Napolitano, Director in Fitch’s Sovereign Group.
Hungary late last year requested financial aid from the EU and the IMF. But the two institutions broke off preliminary negotiations in December amid concerns over new laws that hurt the independence of Hungary’s central bank.
“Even if a (loan) agreement were to be reached, doubts would remain over whether the Hungarian government could submit to its strict conditionality, given its track record of policy unpredictability,” Fitch said.
Government spokesman Andras Giro-Szasz said the downgrade was “surprising” considering statements from Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Tamas Fellegi, Hungary’s chief financial negotiator, confirming the country’s intention to soon reach an agreement with international creditors and affirming its support for the independence of the central bank.
Earlier Friday, Orban met with National Bank of Hungary President Andras Simor and the government’s top economic officials. Orban dismissed market speculation that his conservative government was planning to raid central bank reserves to prop up the state budget and said it would do everything it can to support the central bank’s efforts to stabilize the economy.
On Friday, the forint strengthened to around 215 per euro after falling as low as 224 per euro on Thursday.
Despite government pledges, investors are wary of government policies that boost budget revenues without unpopular austerity measures — such as windfall taxes on banks, telecommunications firms and others. They are also unnerved by Hungary‘s new constitution and new laws that have centralized political power and eroded democratic checks and balances.
Hungary has also been deeply affected by the eurozone’s debt crisis — nearly 80 percent of its exports go to EU countries. Its domestic consumption has been weakened by high levels of household debt, including many mortgages held in soaring Swiss francs.
Many experts see the country falling back into a recession this year, though not as deeply as the 6.7 percent contraction in 2009.
Hungary was given a bailout of euro20 billion ($26 billion) in 2008 after the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers. Yet Orban, whose Fidesz party gained a two-thirds majority in parliament in April 2010 elections, chose to end the deal so IMF would not oversee Hungary’s economic policy

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2012年1月4日星期三

Fitch Affirms Dominican Republic’s FC IDR at ‘B’; Outlook Positive

NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) and Country Ceiling for the Dominican Republic as follows:
–Foreign currency IDR at ‘B’;
–Local currency IDR at ‘B’;
–Foreign currency short-term IDR at ‘B’;
–Country ceiling at ‘B+’.
The Rating Outlook is maintained as Positive.
The Positive Outlook reflects the Dominican Republic’s good macroeconomic performance, improving prospects for higher export earnings due to the development of the mining sector, and increased availability of external and domestic financing sources. However, Fitch notes that the uncertainty surrounding the IMF program and the upcoming electoral cycle, as well as risks stemming from the global economy presently detract from the sovereign’s improving credit profile.
The Dominican Republic’ ratings are underpinned by moderate debt levels, higher GDP per capita than peers, relatively strong social development indicators, and a competitive business environment that supports foreign direct investment inflows.
In spite of growth slowing down to an estimated 4.4% in 2011, the Dominican Republic’s five-year average growth performance remains in line with peers. Inflation, averaging approximately 8.5% in 2011, is lower than the ‘B’ category median. The expected move to a formal inflation-targeting regime in 2012 could further enhance macroeconomic stability over the medium term.
‘Rising mining export volumes are strengthening the capacity of the economy to generate larger and more resilient current external receipts, mitigating long-standing external balance sheet vulnerabilities,’ said Cesar Arias, Associate Director in Fitch’s Sovereign Group. As a result, Fitch expects the current account deficit to fall below the ‘B’ median of 5% of GDP by 2013.
‘The sovereign has benefited from broad multilateral financial support, sustained access to international capital markets and the rapid development of the domestic bond market,’ added Arias. Moreover, the Treasury has pre-funded its entire 2012 external market issuance program and secured USD1 billion in budget support and project financing for 2012.
Buoyed by multilateral disbursements, reserves remain at historic highs and above the adequacy targets agreed with the IMF, supporting the sustainability of the managed exchange rate. Nevertheless, external liquidity ratio, at 97% in 2012, is significantly weaker than peers, and the country’s external financing needs are among the highest in the ‘B’ category.
Thus, Fitch notes that preserving macroeconomic stability and the continued support from multilaterals remains important for anchoring investor confidence and reducing external vulnerabilities.
A narrow revenue base and burdensome electricity subsidies have slowed fiscal consolidation and delayed the full implementation of the IMF’s Stand-By Arrangement and the concomitant disbursements. Yet, Fitch estimates that fiscal deficit was moderate in 2011 owing to expenditure restraint and additional receipts from the tax reform. Moreover, government debt, at 29% of GDP, remains lower than peers, and amortization payments are manageable in comparison to ‘B’ and ‘BB’ peers.
Moving forward, greater confidence in the ability of the next government to maintain macroeconomic stability and broad multilateral financing support would be positive for creditworthiness. A sustained reduction in the country’s external vulnerabilities would also put upward pressure on the ratings. On the other hand, a sharp decline in non-debt-creating capital inflows or a confidence shock as a result of the electoral process resulting in currency pressures and a marked erosion of international reserves would be negative for the ratings.
Additional information is available at ‘www.fitchratings.com’. The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings.
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
–’Sovereign Rating Methodology’ (Aug. 15, 2011).
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
Sovereign Rating Methodology
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=648978
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