Europe woes won’t stall trade finance in Asia

By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
HONG KONG(MarketWatch) — Lessons from the global financial crisis and relatively stronger U.S. banks will likely protect Asian businesses from a repeat of the 2008 horror show, even as European debt troubles make trade loans more expensive and difficult to access.
A full-blown euro-zone crisis could still hit demand for Asian products and services harder than it has so far. But unlike the turmoil they faced in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the region’s exporters are unlikely to suffocate this time around, gasping for credit like fish out of water, say bankers and analysts.
“The importance of trade finance to the global economy is better understood now than in 2008,” said Mark Williams, chief economist for Asia at Capital Economics. “One of the factors that contributed to the recovery in 2009 was the $250 billion of trade-finance guarantees announced by the [Group of 20 major economies]. In the event of a second global financial crisis, future guarantees are likely to be forthcoming.”

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Asia’s spotlight is on monetary policy, including decisions from the Reserve Bank of India, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Thailand. MarketWatch’s Rex Crum reports. (Photo: Getty Images)

Trade finance is often compared to the oil that greases the moving parts of a machine. A simple and frequently used form of trade finance is a letter of credit, which is provided by an importer’s bank to pay for goods shipped by an exporter. As the U.S. dollar is the currency of transaction in most cases, trade is affected whenever there is a scarcity of dollars.
According to Dealogic figures, several European banks have consistently ranked among the top 30 providers of trade finance in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, between 2007 and 2011.
BBVA S.A.

, which has a major presence in Spain and Latin American markets, was the largest provider of such loans in 4 of the last 5 years. BBVA lost the top spot to China Development Bank Corp. only in 2009, when mainland Chinese banks opened their lending taps to fashion a recovery from the financial crisis.
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European banks’ exposure to trade finance in Asia is disproportionately large to their overall loans in the region.
But Capital Economics’ Williams cited the latest data from Bank of International Settlements as showing that euro-zone banks account for only 2.3% of total credit in emerging Asia. That is meager compared to their 47.3% share of lending in emerging Europe and 17.1% in Latin America.
One consequence of the ongoing sovereign-debt crisis in Europe is that it has effectively shut out several major European banks from U.S. money markets. Many of the European lenders that have historically been the big providers of trade finance in Asia are now scaling back their dollar-loan books.

Increased funding costs

That is in turn forcing an increase in the interest rates banks charge on trade finance.

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“The reality is spreads have gone up fairly significantly — almost to the 2008 peak levels — over the last six weeks. I think that, in general, there will be some tapering off, but the higher spreads are here to stay,” said Ravi Saxena, managing director and Asia trade head at Citibank

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Saxena said that in the past, exporters could easily convert a letter of credit into money on presentation at a bank. But a scarcity of dollars is making that more difficult.
Edward George, a London-based soft-commodities specialist at Africa-focused Ecobank, said the cost of trade finance has risen by as much as 5 percentage points in some cases over the past year.
“Short-term trade finance has been the worst affected, whereas project finance is mostly protected by long-term agreements,” said George.
The impact is being felt, even after the U.S. Federal Reserve agreed late last year to lower the interest rates on currency swaps with five other major central banks from around the world.
Under such swaps, the Fed provides dollar liquidity to its counterparts, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. Those central banks can then inject dollars into their respective jurisdictions, when required.
Read full story on the currency swaps.

Dollar hoarding

The situation is aggravated by hoarding of U.S. dollars, even when they are available.
“Demand for U.S. dollars remains high, but the supply has dried up, and many banks are hoarding U.S. dollars for their preferred clients,” said George.

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Five more MFIs seek debt restructuring

Bailout concerns mounting for federal housing agency

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Concerns are growing that the Federal Housing Administration will need to be bailed out by taxpayers.
The agency’s latest monthly outlook report revealed a spike in serious delinquencies for FHA-insured loans, posing a further threat to the agency’s already depleted cash reserves.
According to the report, the percentage of loans in the FHA’s portfolio with three missed payments or more rose to 9.3% in November, up from 8.4% in August.
“It’s highly likely that the FHA will need a taxpayer bailout over the next three to five years,” said Joseph Gyourko, a real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and author of a report entitled “Is FHA the Next Big Housing Bailout?.”
In November, an independent audit of the FHA’s finances found that losses from mortgage defaults had depleted the agency’s reserve fund to 0.24%, or $2.6 billion, during fiscal 2011 — well below the Congressionally-mandated 2% level. (The ratio measures the net worth of the reserve fund compared with the value of the loans FHA has insured.) In 2006, the reserve fund stood at 7%.
At the time, the agency’s auditor warned that if home prices continued to drop, FHA could run through the remainder of its reserves, forcing it to either seek a bailout from the Treasury Department or further increase the premiums it charges borrowers. The FHA doesn’t issue mortgages, but instead insures lenders against defaults.
Such a bailout could cost billions: Guyourko argues that the FHA is so undercapitalized that it would need at least $50 billion, even if the housing markets don’t deteriorate further. But even by more conservative measures, the agency would need at least $20 billion to meet the capital requirements mandated by Congress.
In early December, the House Financial Services Committee grilled Shaun Donovan, the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing Urban Development, over the possibility of a bailout. Donovan blamed FHA’s financial woes on loans made before 2009 and said that loans issued in recent years were experiencing a “dramatic decline in the rate of early payment default.” As a result of these healthier loans, he said the reserve fund would be able to return to the required 2% level in 2014.
Yet, Wharton’s Gyourko argues that the FHA has underestimated the risk of these more recent loans. Many of the new serious delinquencies were from loans issued in 2009 and 2010 and he projects there will be many more defaults to come.
One reason is that many of the borrowers who took out FHA-backed mortgages during this time relied on the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit for down payments. A large percentage of these borrowers didn’t have enough cash for the small 3.5% down payment that FHA requires, let alone the money to make their ongoing mortgage payments, he said.
The FHA said that the vast majority of home buyers who claimed the tax credit used their own cash for down payments or borrowed from relatives and are therefore low risk.
Home prices will also play a key role in whether taxpayers will have to rescue the FHA, said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication.
“Given that most FHA loans are made with a 3.5% down payment, most are underwater within a year after price declines,” he said.
Many FHA borrowers are teetering on the edge of foreclosure and further housing price declines will push many of those over, exposing the agency to more losses. “I think there will have to be a bailout over the next couple of years,” said Cecala.
The FHA claims its total liquid assets are $400 million higher than a year ago and home prices would have to fall 4% to 5% before the agency would need a bailout. It said it has also recognized expected losses and planned for them by raising upfront insurance premiums to bolster its assets.
Still, that might be cutting it close. Home prices are projected to fall another 3% to 4% in 2012 before stabilizing, according to forecasting firm Fiserv.
For all the FHA’s problems, however, it has filled a great need over the past few years, said Cecala. Low-income and first-time home buyers have relied on FHA loans to finance their purchases. Without the backing of the FHA, fewer homes would have been sold and prices would be even lower.
“The housing market would be in far worse shape than it is,” he said

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